Project Financing, Risks And Risk Assessment Based On The Influence Diagram

The project financing is a developing financing way that regarded the assets after the project builded up as the main guaranty,and the project's future cash flow as the main source for payment of debts.The Project financing has alleviated the restrictions the traditional debt financing putting on the quantity of the borrowed money,and the time limits of company's credit.Borrowers,while appraising the finance behavior,their check point have been transfered to such respects as the economic strength of the project, risk control ability of the financing agreements,from the company prestige,assets mortgage,and financial situation.International credit rating company, Moddy's, Standard & Poor's and fitch's, provided service on project financing grade ,which has already became the main reference basis for capital market making financing decisions. I.The Purpose And Meaning Project financing is a main way of project financing with a large spaces in China.Whether they can arrive at an agreement or not,depended on offers'willing to accept financing risk. Reasearch on method of appraisal of financing risk will contribute to the design of the scheme of project financing, and advancing the development of project financing in China. Investment structure,financing ways,risk warranty clauses played the essential function on the transformation course of project risk to financing risk. The commonly used quantitative analytical methods mostly based on the appraisal of the project risk. Even in the international credit company,The interaction between the project risk,financing agreement and its risk has not been totally integrated into quantitative risk evaluation system yet. Lacking the quantitative analysis of the interaction will influence the validity of appraisal. Applying influences diagram into risk appraisal,one hand,will contribute to improving the depth of differentiating and analyse of the risk factors, and grasp the inherent change law of the factors.The other hand, use influence diagram to reflect the effect mechanisms between project risk, financing agreement and its risk, and to make a emulation of risk system. II.The Basic Clue And Logic Frame Commencing on the basis and course the financing risk producing,we investigated the systematic structure of risk, and analysed the deficiency of methods now used on reflecting the internal systematic function of the risk.Then explored the application of influence diagram in the evaluation syste. According to this clue, we summed up the characteristics of project financing firstly,and analysed the historical action of the risk controls while project financing develops. Project financing risk is a multi-level system,the complicated interaction of the project risk factor of and financing agreement is significant to the forming of the financing risk. So, this text focusing on and analysing the systematic structure of the financing,which are regarded as the foundation of appraising. Around how to integrat project risk factors and interaction of financing agreement into appraisal, and how to provide platform for summarizing the knowledges of expert's.We made an introduction and appraisal of the existing theory and practice on risk appraisal, and put forward that the influence diagam is the suitable method for risk differentiating and appraisal. Afterwards,around its application on risk appraisal, we discussd the general way and steps for making and resolving influence diagram. To the characteristic of various kinds of project financing,we set up concreteinfluence diagram. For understanded,taking Chinese CITIC group's investment in Canada as example finally, we demonstrated the application of influence diagram on the project financing. III.Main Content And Viewpoint. The main content of this text can be divided into four parts: (I) summary of project financing and the financing risk. Made up by chapter one. Compared with traditional company's financing, project financing has unique characteristics. The expansion of the implementation field of international project financin...