The Construction Of The Optimal Interest Rate Rules And Empirical Analysis

Since 1993, the monetary policy of our country has been adopting the money supply as intermediary's goal all the time , but all sorts of signs of macroscopical economic development of our country indicate in recent years , the less the money supply adapt to this role. Used interest rate or the money supply asing as intermediary's goal has already become the focus that the theory circle has disputed. Domestic numerous economists generally maintain that regard interest rate as the intermediary goal of the monetary policy of our country. How to adjust the interest rate by reaching the goal which promotes lasting sound development of economy) the foreign main developed country maintains that acts according to the rule. So, the research with monetary policy domestically become the hot question in recent years. But the research is all set up on the basis of traditional Phillips curve and AS/AD model, having neglected the role of capital market in conduction mechanism of the monetary policy, the result of the research can not reflect the implementation course of the monetary policy trully , still need to perfect further. So, this text is on the basis of studying in domestic and international monetary policy rule, draw lessons from the Phillips curves and AS/AD models of expansion that Kontonikas and Montagnoli put forward, regard assets price as the influenced variable of the macroeconomy to join in models , and adopt the method that the trends optimize on this basis , structure the optimum regular model of interest rate of our country, through real example analyse estimate appear concrete form of model, analyse and discuss to the result.The conclusion of this text is: The optimum interest rate rule can instruct the Central Bank to adjust the interest rate from trend , but its adjusting range still needs to probe into further, the reason cause regular value lean towards than actual value heavy lies in our country implement interest rate control the policy, so thistext proposes , our country should accelerate the process of the market-based reform of interest rate , thus promote the macroeconomy to develop steadily and surely. Lie in the place of innovation of this text: In the initial impact on macroeconomy of capital market of consideration about the similar research with regular monetary policy in our country, the method to adopt the trends and optimize structures the optimum regular model of interest rate of our country.Whether this text structure make as follows arranging for:Chapter one the introduction, have put forward the selected title motive of this text and summed up the theory progress about the theme of this text both at home and abroad and studying currently.Chapter two the setting-up of the model, proceed from traditional AD/AS model and Phillips curve , introduce the model after expanding , regard assets price as a influenced variable of the monetary policy to join in the model , set up the optimum regular model of interest rate in method of utilizing the trends to optimize.Chapter three a part of the data, analyse to the real example of this text that the necessary data have been chosen and calculated.Chapter four real example part, is it estimate to data model need , get optimum interest rate regular concrete form to go on. After this through is it discuss to result , draw this text conclusion , increase the interest to analyse the last time to our country on this basis to go on.Chapter five pointed out the existing problem of this text and improvement direction.