| The work of Charles F. Doran provided the idea of power cycle theory firstly. By weighting a sovereign state's relative power within an international system, we can forecast the changing of international affairs. Using unweighted measures of national material capabilities across five indicators, the power cycle method allows the analyst to estimate the relative hierarchical position of each state in a defined system or set of states, the rapidity of each state's rise and decline in relative power and to forecast the likely future for each state in the system under view.Power cycle theory, however, is a product of its time and may have less utility in post-Cold War and post-twentieth century analysis of international relations. The power cycle theory of Charles F. Doran does not account for innovation in technology or weapons systems, nor does it include significant non-state actor when analyzing systems. The five indicators of material capability, measured only five years, are not equally weighted across the broader elements by which international analysts understand power today: military, economic, and soft power.After analyzed the element- actors and power of power cycle theory, compared the difference with the other theories of international relations, this thesis presents a reformulated power cycle model which have modified the short of classical power cycle theory. Firstly, the indicator of material capabilities are modified, doing so, which can effect technology innovation, and explored a new atmosphere for military power and economic power. The most important is taking soft power into power cycle theory firstly. Secondly, Non-state international actors were discussed in power cycle theory. Finally, rethinking power cycle theory, we can get the simplified relative power curve. The shape of relative power curve has a little difference with Doran's curve. |
