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A Study On The Impact Of Population Factors On Real Exchange Rate

Posted on:2017-03-16Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:L S WuFull Text:PDF
GTID:2207330482488481Subject:Finance
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
This paper is based on the situation that world’s aging population is accelerating and the process of urbanization is steadily pushing forward, urges to reveal the change of exchange rate from the perspective of demographic factors. In the theory of mechanism parts,the paper reveals the mechanism about demographic factors and exchange rate from "demand structure effect", "current account",” Balassa and Samuelson effect" and " factor endowments effect". Then the paper selects the global 195 countries and regions, 34 years of panel data, through the solid model of individual fixed effects model, verify the relationship between demographic factors and the real exchange rate. The paper finds that elderly population increase 1%, the real exchange rate will appreciate 0.22%, young population increase1%, the real exchange rate will appreciate 0.55%, urbanization rate increase 1%, the real exchange rate will depreciate 0.46%. Based on the conclusion, this paper selected population bring-up ratio variable as substitution variable of population age structure variable, and add the other important economic variables as control variables to have other regressions. The regression results prove the basic model has a strong robustness. In particular, elderly population increase 1%, the real exchange rate will appreciate about 0.2%-0.3%, young population increase 1%, the real exchange rate will appreciate about 0.5%, urbanization rate increase 1%, the real exchange rate will depreciate about 0.4%-0.5%. In order to find more features about demographic factors and the real exchange rate,the paper divides all the samples into two categories according to the national development level and whether or not to enter the aging society, studies the influence about population from different development degree and the aging process of population to the real exchange rate. The empirical results show that the greater the dependence on the working population to a country’s economy, the real exchange rate to increase the sensitivity of the elderly population.Then the paper pay attention to the domestic, studies the relationship about the population of factors data and RMB real exchange rate in our country. Through the multiple regression analysis, finds getting along with the increase of aging population proportion, RMB real exchange rate will rise by 10.88%, young population increase1%, the real exchange rate will appreciate 1.48%, urbanization rate increase1%, the real exchange rate will depreciate about 7.05%. In the 2050 s, the trends about China’s real exchange rate depends on changes of the elderly population, young population and urbanization rate. Preliminary estimates, along with the open policy of two-child, the young population may increase a little, causing the appreciation of RMB. Due to the RMB real exchange rate has a bigger sensitivity to elderly population than urbanization rate, so RMB is more likely to rise. Therefore, China should make full use of labor resources, encourage enterprises to invest overseas actively, and increase the supply of non-traded goods to deal with the negative influence about the appreciation of RMB on the economy.
Keywords/Search Tags:the elderly population, the young population, urbanization, the real exchange rate
PDF Full Text Request
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