An Empirical Study On The Relationship Between Stock Index Fluctuation And GDP In China

The existence of stock market in China for 25 years,25 years has been the rapid development. More and more experts and scholars began topay attention to the relationship between GDP and stock market, the conclusion obtained is very much. In this paper, with the help of VAR model,chooses season and season change rate of GDP stock price index change rate of the two sample data, analyzes the effective empirical, then again for qualitative analysis. The results of the analysis to obtain the GDP growth rate there is some relative growth rate and index, and through the Granger causality and variance decomposition to understand growth rate is positive correlation with the GDP index. And the stock market is a barometer of the national economy is very consistent to the fact. Then the results are qualitative analysis of a full range of, analysis of China’s stock market and GDP trend relations through the stock market and the GDP and the EU and Asia on behalf of the state graph. And explain China’s stock market and GDP the deep-seated reasons of deviation. After two analysis, given the development of stock market and the recommendations of the GDP and the countermeasures. This paper is divided into six part:The first part:the background and the purpose and significance, from this part of the stock market rises to explain to the current situation of the development of our stock market, illustrates the background of the topic. And then analyses the realistic significance of this selected topic. And analysis of the combination of domestic and foreign references on the research results of this thesis.The second part:the theoretical basis to explain the stock market and the present situation of our country. Through the theory to explain our current stock market development issues, and made a chart analysis.The third part:to make an empirical study on the stock market volatility and the GDP volatility, through the stationary test, unit root test, cointegration test, Granger causality test, finally established the VAR model, and then the other difference decomposition shows that the stock market volatility, the effective impact GDP volatility, there is strong the explanatory power of the GDP volatility.The fourth part:using qualitative analysis method to discuss issues. And join America, Germany and South Korea’s GDP associated with the stock market history relations, to analyze the current situation of our country’s two party.The fifth part:put forward the thesis problem as well as the combination of China proposes relevant countermeasures and solutions.The sixth part:the summary of the full text, and confidence in China’s stock market and economic growth.