Study On The Behavior Of Consumers' Repentance In The Background Of Anticipated Sales

Advance selling has been concerned and applied by more and more firm, it not only can predict the potential of market, adjust the capacity more reasonable, but also can better meet consumer demand. When the firm can sale product in two stages, which means consumer can choose to buy either in advanced period, or spot period. The strategic consumers will choose the purchase-timing to make them get more consumer surplus. But most studies more often focus on consumer economic surplus, consumer psychological surplus are often overlooked, this dissertation intends to use regret theory to predict consumer behaviors and purchasing decisions more microcosmic in the context which the firm provides advance selling and buyers have uncertain valuations, further, we will discuss the impact of consumer anticipated regret on firm’s profit and decisions. After, we extend to the case of retailer, analyzing retailer’s optimal order quantity which has been impacted by their anticipated regret and corresponding profit.(1) We analyze the economic and psychological surplus of consumer in an advance selling context, then consumer’s total expect surplus function is given which including the impact of anticipated regret, so we can precisely determine the purchasing decision and the condition which the consumer will buy in advance.(2) Considering the cases that firm with uncapacitated and capacitated respectively, we continue to determine the impact of consumer anticipated regret on firm’s profit and decisions. When the firm’s capacity is limited, and it won’t be clear totally in advance in order to reserve availability for late-coming, high-paying consumer. Therefore, we mainly analyze the marketing strategies under different circumstances when limited advance sale is taken.(3) Based on the analysis of consumer anticipated regret, we explore the retailer’s optimal order quantity which also been impacted by their anticipated regret and corresponding measures that supplier can take to response to it. In order to predict the behavior of each member more precisely in the supply chain, we intend to build the three-level supply chain which is impacted by anticipated regret and consisted of consumer, retailer and supplier in the background of advance selling.