Study On The Forecast Of Local Tax Revenue Under The Medium - Term Rolling Budget

The local taxation is one of the most important parts in medium-term financial revenue budgets. However, the current forecasting methods of local taxation, which are found to be over simplified, inaccurate, strongly subjective and harmful, can hardly meet the requirements of medium-term financial revenue budgeting. Taxation comes mainly from economy, the tax revenue forecast must be closely related to the economic development and the characteristics of the tax in the modern socialist market economy system. According to the empirical analysis, this paper proposed the influence factors of local tax revenue forecast, made the budget index clear, established the evaluation standard of the forecasting results.Based on the principles of VAR model, this dissertation has utilized a VAR model with necessary adjustment which includes variables like local GDP, local taxation, fixed asset investments and financial expenditure. In the experiment of forecasting and testing the actual operation date sample of Yunnan province in 18 years, the well-formed new model shows exceeding high accuracy and reliability with only an average error of 1.5%. Meanwhile, analysising and forecasting tax revenue on the basis of tax characteristics under the background of economy and policy. The study illustrates that the forecasting model itself could not automatically reflect the influence of paroxysmal factors on the local taxation during the current reform process of replacing the business tax with a value-added tax, resources tax and house property tax. Therefore, to make reliable and accurate forecasting, the VAR and ARMA models are still need to be adjusted after making qualitative analysis of the practice of economic and tax system reform. Consequently, the rolling forecasting for local taxation should be made on the basis of qualitative and quantitative analysis. Furthermore, advancing the forecast construction oflocal tax system.