Analysis On The Risk Of Local Government Debt In Yunnan Province

In recent years, the rapid expansion of the Yunnan provincial government debt has played a huge role in promoting, helping stabilize the local economic development. But just as a coin has two sides, the Yunnan provincial government debt inevitably has its disadvantages. With the continuous development of the scale of the debt, the risk of government debt is gradually emerging.This paper will focus on the research and discussion of Yunnan local government debt risk. First of all, the caliber and implications of local government debt will be defined, and then, this paper will introduces the theory of local government debt and the local government debt risk, Secondly, analysis the method of Yunnan Province, focuses on the recent development of Yunnan local government debt, including the scale of the Government debt of Yunnan Province, the Yunnan provincial government debt structure. Thirdly, basing on the 2014 national audit data, the Yunnan local government debt risk assessment, by using the single index value method and the establishment of Fuzzy level analysis model advanced and original, locate the place the degree of risk of government debt in Yunnan Province. Finally, based on the social situation in Yunnan province, made six management policies are properly handle the stock of debt, such as building government financing framework, and improving the Yunnan provincial government debt risk warning mechanism, the preparation of the local government balance sheet, improve the information disclosure system and improve debt credit rating system. We expect to improve the Yunnan local government debt risk management ideas, and provide basic theory for the Yunnan provincial government’s debt risk management.This article is a study caliber Yunnan local government debt, on the basis of the understanding of the local government debt, by using the data of the National Audit Office website and the Yunnan Audit website, Yunnan Finance website, released by national statistics agencies and data base, drawing on local government debt current research, literature analysis, normative analysis and empirical analysis of debt risk in Yunnan province were analyzed. Hoping to conduct a comprehensive assessment of Yunnan province government debt, helping people build objective and correct understanding of risk, and wants to be able to evaluate the data obtained to provide decision-making basis for the Yunnan province government.