An Analysis Of The Factors Influencing China 's Short - Term International Capital Flow

Since the collapse of Bretton Woods, the world economy and finance have developed to the direction of liberalization, internationalization and integration. In the context of world economic integration and international financial globalization, large-scale cross-border capital flow trend has become increasingly evident. Meanwhile, the stock market and the rapid development of financial derivatives market provide a convenient channel for short-term international capital’s large capacity, high rates and speculative flows without borders. So far, the effect of high-risk and liquidity international short-term capital to the real economy and financial markets is increasing in developing countries, especially emerging market countries. In 2008, after the global financial crisis, the unconventional monetary easing, long-term ultra-low interest rate policy which the developed countries widespread implement to tackle the financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis has constituted the current international financial market unconventional policy environment, making the emerging market and developing economies (especially China) has become the destination of speculative capital to achieve the profit. In the future for a long period of time, the international short-term capital flows in China is not only because the countries’own economic and financial factors, but more influenced by the international financial situation, especially the policy implications of United States, Europe and other major international settlement currency countries.On the basis of finishing summed up literature related to China’s international capital flows, we analyze the theoretical traditional influencing factors to short-term international capital flows and identify new factors in the current financial situation influencing China’s short-term international capital flows-external unconventional policy. Then, based on the theory analysis, we calculate multi-caliber estimated China’s short-term international capital flows on the basis of high-frequency data and analysis factors affecting China’s short-term international capital flows by regression model and VAR model on time series data Ultimately concluded that:In addition to the traditional short-term international capital flows influencing factors, quantitative easing and other factors have become new factors affecting China’s short-term international capital flows. Specifically, the speculative profit-driven, risk-averse and external new factors, these three motive factors affecting China’s short-term international capital flows.After the financial crisis, given the fluctuation of international financial policy environment and a series of economic indicators including currency, interest rate, this paper studies the impact of the major factors, including external unconventional policy factors to China’s short-term international capital flows. Not only does this fit the actual situation of the current international financial and pave the way for the latter to make a study of how to regulate the China’s short-term international capital flows, but also to verify the factors affecting China’s short-term international capital flows, pointing out the focus on the management and control of China’s short-term international capital flows. It has a certain relevance and forward-looking.