Shandong Province Power Expansion Planning Studies

The electric power industry is the emphasis and vanguard in the national ecomomic development stragety. To a considerable degree, the development of the electric power industry accounts for the development of national economy, the advancement of science and technology, the improvement of the people's living standard and the efficiency of the enery utilization. The generation expansion planning is very important and indispensable to the healthy development of the electric power industry. On one hand, inadequate capacity will lead to the shortage of electric power, and thereby check the development of the national economy; on the other hand, the overabundance of capacity will leave many generating units idle, thus result in enomous waste. So the generation expansion planning has great significance.Historically, the electricity production in China, under the guide of planned economy policy, has simply expanded the production, of which the sole purpose is to meet the needs of various consumers, but neglected energy efficiency and environmental protection. Since China's reform and opening up, the electric power industry in Shandong has developed rapidly and the electric power source construction has come out top. However, the existing problems, such as the monotypism of the electric power source, the ill-matched structure of the generating units, immoderate primary energy consumption, and severe environmental pollution, have threatened the people's living surroundings, wasted an extremely large amount of rare natural resources and hindered the economic development. Just due to the status quo, the objective of this research is to explore the generation expansion planning of Shandong, which can provide theoretic foundation for making correct decisions on Shandong electric power development, on the basis of the scientific load forecasting and theoretic analysis. In summary, this thesis consists of the following:1. Some kinds of load forecasting models, such as regression analysis model, Winters linear and seasonal exponential smoothing model, grey model, fuzzy linear regression model and fuzzy clustering model, are built to provide precise data for generation expansion planning. Based on analyzing the traditional ones, the improvement of fuzzy linear regression model is put forward and fuzzy ISODATA clustering analysis model is built for long-term load forecasting.2. On the basis of the qualitative analysis of the economic development trend and the electricity consumption in the past, the development trend of electricity consumption in Shandong is analyzed macroscopically to provide reference for quantitative load forecasting. The forecasting of total energy demand of Shandong, energy served by Shandong power grid, monthly maximum and minimum load of Shandong power grid, and summer and winter typical daily load of Shandong power grid over the planning horizon from 2005 to 2014, is completed using appropriate forecasting model, which is selected according to the characteristic of historical data.3. In-depth analyses are made respectively of the two parts of the generation expansion planning problem — the optimal capacity expansion investment and the probabilistic production simulation after investigating the modeling mechanism of the generation expansion planning problem. The generation expansion planning model, which takes environmental pollution and energy consumption into consideration, is built based on the charactristic of Shandong electric power system. The dynamic programming method is used to solve the above model.4. The optimal capacity expansion configuration of Shandong over the planning horizon from 2005 to 2014, which is based on the minimum total cost, is found using the program PlanElec-Pro.