China's Listed Companies' Financial Distress Prediction Model Of Empirical Research

With the intensive reform of China's market economy and the quick development of the capital market,the frequency of encountering financial distress in Corporation is becoming higher and higher. This phenomenon does great harm to the order of the stock exchange as well as the interest of many investors. So the demand of predicting the financial distress for corporations is becoming urgent.The author localizes the investors as the information users and localizes the listed corporations as the research object. Then the author investigates 72 sample manufacture corporations with the financial ratio indexes. Considered the actual situation in China's stock exchanges, the author regards"ST"(special treatment) as the sign of"financial distress"in this dissertation. By applying Fisher's multivariate discriminating analysis and logistic regressive analysis, the author creates two predictive models .The main conclusion of this dissertation are as follow:1.The reasons of the corporation financial distress are due to the poor earnings, the lower net cash and the liquidity problem.2.The financial ratio indexes of the listed corporation in China include the information of the forecasting financial distress. The leading ratio indexes of predicting financial distress are the cash ratio ,the rate of current assets turnover, ROE, EPS and net cash per Share .3.The empirical research indicates the effect of the logistic regressive model is the most great.