The New Exchange Rate System After The Reform Of Rmb Appreciation Analysis

Some western countries represented by Japan and America have been pushing RMB to appreciate since 2002. For a while, the RMB appreciation and RMB exchange rate system became the focus of international world.We establish simplex and managed floating exchange-rate regime, which is actually a kind of US dollar pegged regime since the exchange-rate regime reform. On July 21st, we launched a new reform on RMB exchange rate forming system. The RMB exchange-rate is based on the market supply and demand and linked to a basket of currencies. Since new exchange-rate regime reform, RMB kept appreciating and increased fluctuating range. Under new situation, the RMB appreciation has and will bring great influence to economy.This paper analyzes the appreciation background, exchange-rate regime, the influence to economy and the anticipation of appreciation in 2007, based on the comparison of some Asian currencies appreciation in 1980s. The paper also establishes ARMA-EGARCH model to anticipate the RMB exchange-rate in short run so as to analyze the appreciation trend from July 21st and the appreciation range in 2007. Finally, the paper brings some suggestions about our exchange-rate regime.