Research Of Predicting And Warning Technology Of Geologic Hazards Along The Highway Of Shiyan To Tianshui

One of the worst areas at geologic disaster is Qinba area in Shanxi province. The geologic disaster has posed a serious threat to people's normal production and life. So, making warning and predicting to the disaster that happened there in time is becoming a problem that people is more and more interested in.The paper combines the research with the connect lines of the national highway of Shiyan to Tianshui. Basing the study on analyzing the domestic and foreign present, investigating the geological conditions, analyzing the relationship of raining and distribution, considering the comprehensive evaluation figure, build the method of landslides.Firstly, investigated the physical geography and geological conditions, in order to clearing out the area's topography and geomorphology, meteorological and hydrological conditions, stratigraphic lithology, geological structure, hydro geological condition and main human engineering economic activity way.Secondly, expounded the warning and forecast theory about geological disaster. Including the warning and forecast theoretical basis of physics and mechanics, statistics and applied mathematics, geographic information science, as well as commonly used models. Such as: certainty model, statistics forecasting model, gray model, artificial intelligence model, geological disasters and nonlinear model based on GIS technology, the forecast model.Then, base on the analysis of the relationship of geological disasters'space distribution and rainfall in Qinba Mountain, defined the meaning of the cumulative rainfall and daily rainfall to accursed disasters. With logistic regression model, determined the landslides critical rainfall express rainfall, ascertained rainfall intensity and cumulative rainfall critical value expression and the influence of the rainfall of landslide probability.Finally, developed landslide warning and forecast. By rainfall critical index, determine possible location and landslide probability, and on the basis of the landslide index, divides five forecast level, release the warning results. At the same time, judgment dangerous points of 5 and 4 levels to avoid disaster and getting ready to disaster preparation.