Research And Application Of Maximum Entropy Distribution Fitting Method In Tide And Sediment Statistics

According to Code for Sea Port Hydrology, the accumulative frequency curve of design tide level should be drawn on grid paper, and then the design tide level values can be abstracted from the curve. Because the accumulative frequency curve is plotted artificially, there exists arbitrariness in determining the design water level. An improved maximum entropy distribution is utilized to calculate the design tide level. The computation accuracy is higher and the shortage of traditional method is overcome. The method is of important theoretics and engineering meaning. In addition, Since the construction of Cangzhou Port, serious sudden silt occurs in its outer channel under strong winds. The maximum entropy distribution is utilized to hindcast a historical series of siltation volumes. Then, the return values of sudden siltation vulumes are estimated for silt-prevention engineering design.This paper mainly includes the following contents:(1) On the basis of the study on research and development status of the the principle of maximum entropy (POME), an improved maximum entropy distribution is gained by theoretical derivation;(2) Research and discuss how to apply the principle of maximum entropy to hydrologic frequency statistics analysis by utilizing the theoretical distribution and earameter estimation methods.(3) Use the improved maximum entropy distribution to calculate the design tide level, in couple with specific engineering cases, and compare the results with the traditional methods.(4) Take Cangzhou Port for an example, apply the maximum entropy distribution to the statistics analysis of sudden siltation in its outer channel, estimate the return values of sudden siltation vulumes and compare the results with other methods.