Research On Financial Distress Prediction Of Chinese Real Estate Listed Companies Based On Z-Score Model

Due to late start of chinese real estate business, the operation planning of is still in the early stages of development, even today the real estate industry still needs continue to improve and constantly revised. At present, there are some unreasonable factors in the funds structure of Chinese real estate companies. Because there is lack of financial means in Chinese real estate business, for example, asset securitization and land option, about 70% of funds depend on bank loans. It exist a risk of rupture funds. In addition, the different financial and accounting characteristics from other sectors (low concentration, heavy assets, and low turnover rate) has brought enormous crisis to the real estate business. Therefore, how to predict the financial risk has become one of important issues to be resolved.In order to resolve the issus of chinese real estate listed companies'financial prediction, fisrtly, this paper reviws problem of deternination of financial distress and financial methods in domestic and foreign academics, and indicats that the listed real estate companies needs be set out to go through the financial early-warning process "defined - Cause - how to decide - how to solve ". Secondly, after the basis of previous research, this paper introduces the theories and methods of financial predication, and indicates the reason that it chooses z value of the model as a method of fianncial prediction. Thridly, According to the traditional idea of Z-Score model and characteristics of Chinese real estate industry, this paper will reconstruct the new Z-Score model for the Chinese real estate enterprise financial prediction by re-observing the sensitive financial indicators. The new model realizes―two-years-ahead‖risk prediction to timely avoid financial crisis and difficulties caused to Chinese real estate companies. And it overcomes the limitation of the traditional financial variables and the neglect of various industry characteristics to contribute to a more stable business development. Finanlly, According to results of predictions, the paper sums up the basic real estate listed companies coping strategies, and ultimately forms a complete real estate listing company's financial early warning system to address the financial difficulties of the real estate business to prevent problems.