Research Of Comprehensive Forecast Of Hailstone

Hailstone is one of the main meteorological disasters. Every year, hailstone brings huge losses to agriculture, architecture, communications, electricity, transportation and people's lives and property. Therefore, if it is possible to achieve a comprehensive forecast of hailstone, we can notify relevant departments timely to take measures to reduce the loss of production in industry and agriculture.With the increase of various forecasting methods of weather and climate, how to determine or figure out a better one from different forecasting methods has become the centre of attention. The comprehensive forecast thought is widely applied to weather forecast.The main work of this paper included:(1) The database of the radar image characteristic was constructed. First, it included transforming the base data reflected by the Doppler radar into the bitmap format. Then through the image processing, 24 dimensional features, which include color, texture and shape features, were extracted and saved as the characteristic database to provide data support for the follow-up work.(2) Rough Set Theory was used for data mining based on the characteristic database. That can form a knowledge base for hailstone recognition in order to establish a single model for hailstone forecast. Through the BP neural network, a classifier can be built to achieve the hailstone samples'auto-classification.(3) The integrated knowledge base was formed by the combination of the rules obtained from the Rough Set Theory and the Association Rule. Then the interference can be eliminated by the rule, and the conflict can be resolved by the theory of uncertainty reasoning. With that effort, a comprehensive hailstone forecasting model can be formed and the hailstone monomers identified can be displayed in category. The experimental results showed that the comprehensive forecast model improved the accuracy of hailstone recognition and achieved good results in practical operation.In conclusion, as a bold attempt to a comprehensive forecast of hailstone, this paper has achieved an ideal result from experiments and founded a good base for the comprehensive forecast of hailstone in the future.