Analysis Of Record Based On Aftershocks From The Earthquake

Earthquake is a natural disaster which can not be avoided. It could bring about enormous damage to the safety of human survival, socio-economic development and social stability. At present, both at home and abroad, the study of earthquake sequence includes the characteristics of the type of earthquake sequence, the background of earthquake sequence, the strong probability distribution of earthquake aftershock sequence and so on.In the paper, the theory of record value is used to research and analysis the seismic aftershocks data. The main content is as follows:The first part of the article introduces the research background, the source of seismic data, research methods of aftershock and so on.The second part first interprets linear regression model and the model of time series analysis; Secondly, the basic results of record value are introduced, including the definition, characters, and moment, etc; Finally, we analysis maximum likelihood estimation and Bayesian estimation of record.The third part, statistical software is used to analysis the data of Wenchuan earthquake aftershock, produce the distribution of strong aftershocks and the frequency chart of aftershocks; Secondly, traditional methods of h distinguish and gray forecast are used, but their results are not ideal. At last, the data which is from Wenchuan earthquake aftershock from May 12,2008 to September 28, is analysed by SPSS, we find this data approximately submit to exponential, Therein, we apply the academic result of exponential distribution to this data and obtain some valuable results.