Study Of The Load Forecasting Of The Electricity Market In The Rural Area Of Huaibei City

Based on known demand and considering the political, economic, climate and other relevant factors, load forecasting can predict future load demand. Load forecasting in rural areas, will help protect electrical grid security, optimize the electrical power structure, arrange reasonable operation mode and maintenance program, improve the power system's economic and social benefits, and protect development for agriculture and country.This paper, Power load in the rural areas of Anhui Huaibei is divided into 6 categories which is large industrial, non-or-general industrial, commercial, agricultural production, self-employed of migrant workers and resident in rural areas. Having obtained the historical data of power load for the past for years, time series method is adopted for load forecasting.Exponential smoothing method is a kind of time series forecasting method and it is commonly used for load forecasting of power system. This paper, double exponential smoothing method is used in the load forecasting of power load forecasting of Huaibei rural areas. There are several methods to solve smoothing coefficient estimation, such as experience, trial and error and optimization. Optimization method is selected in this paper to calculate smoothing coefficient.In the next 4 years, there will be substantial growth of electric load in Huaibei region. Industry load and resident load will be in a large proportion and other sectors be relatively small proportion.