| With the improve of bridge construction technology and enhance of demand for transport, more and more super large bridge appear in the highway network, especially in Yangtze River Delta Area. A super large bridge which locates often in a junction of land and river has the feature of large span and long distance. The loss and rescue which caused by traffic accident will be greater than that of highway, especially in case of dangerous goods. However at present the study of super large bridge mainly focus on the technical side, less road traffic safety. It is necessary to study the traffic safety and accident prediction of super large bridge in order to ensure the road traffic safety.This paper puts forward several key affecting operation factors in studying the super large bridge road traffic safety, including natural disasters and weather conditions (wind, rain, snow, fog, ice and heat), traffic conditions factors, dangerous goods factors. The disaster and emergency happened in super large bridge operation process. And it poses three indicators systems of the bridge operation: the road traffic safety indicator system of severe weather, the dangerous goods indicator system of severe weather and emergency transport, the hazard evaluation index system after dangerous goods accident. And it uses the set pair theory to analyze the same, different and opposite on various factors. The variable weights evaluation method is used to change the weight to punish the small indicator of the measured value. It expands its weight to make the evaluation result more reasonable and scientific. The paper studies the accidents prediction of the traffic accidents number on the bridge. A prediction model base on the variable parameters of grey-set analysis has been proposed with combination of gray prediction and set the prediction model.Finally, it validates that the evaluation result is more scientific and rational after variable weight through actual safety evaluation case of a bridge operations. |
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