Structured Larix Population Dynamic Simulation Based On Integra L Projection Model

In the past years, Matrix Model has been used widely in the forest dynamic simulation. Matrix model was easy-to-understand, easy-to-use. But, classical matrix model has some limitations difficult to be overcome. First, in their standard form matrix models offer limited possibilities to incorporate variation among individuals within a size category. Besides, the output (population growth rate, elasticities) of matrix models is highly sensitive to variation in the number of categories.Integral Projection Models (IPMs) provide solutions for both above-mentioned problems. There are clear advantages of using IPMs instead of classical matrix models to analyze tree demography. IPM are extensions of matrix models that yield similar output (population growth, sensitivity, elasticity, age estimates), but use continuous relations of vital rates (growth, survival, reproduction) versus size (or age) as input, instead of category-specific values. The above mentioned limitations do not apply to IPMs, as these models explicitly incorporate variation among individuals in growth rates (and any other vital rate), typically use large numbers of categories (or mesh points) and allow for transitions of individuals to any other size (be it larger or smaller). So far, IPMs has hardly been used for long-lived, slow-growing species, in spite of their potential to be used for these species groups.The objective of the study is to use Integral Projection Model to simulate the dynamic of long-term stable growth rate and diameter structure distribution of larch population. The simulation results revealed that Integral projection model performed better than matrix model, which can get more accurate dynamic projection and stable growth rate.