The Sociological And Economic Evaluation And Prediction Of TB Control Project In Mongolia

Objective (1).Retrospective comparison of effect of TB control project between 2005 to 2009 in Mongolia tuberculosis ,seeking the shortage and providing the basis for TB control of sustainable development. (2) Evaluating TB control project of Mongolia by using economic method and providing the reference and economic support for DOTS strategy.(3) Analying affecting factors of tuberculosis cognition ,in order to learn the effection of announcement and education because of the DOTS strategy in Mongolia.(4).Predicting its theoretical morbidity of Monglia in future 9 years,Comparing it with practical value . Providing the basis for the reasonable investment and effective evaluation.Method (1).Analyzing 2005 ~ 2009 tuberculosis material by using retrospective research though rate and constitution(.2).Economic evaluating of Mongolia data though the cost-effectiveness, cost - utility, cost-benefit(.3).Evaluating the cognitive and behavior by using binary logistic regression analysis method (4).Forecasting the trend of its nine years‵ theoretical morbidity and evaluating its predictive effection by using the gray model GM (1, 1) according to the 2005 ~ 2009 tuberculosis rates information.Results (1).A total of suspected tuberculosis cases were diagnosed between 2005 to 2009 in mongolia was 289413, found and free treated 104193 cases those are activity pulmonary tuberculosis patient, Among these cases,50795 cases were detected to be new smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis,its rate was 48.75 percent , 6754 cases were re-treated smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis,its rate was 6.48 persent,46644 case were smear negtive pulmonary tuberculosis . The curative rates for new smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis was 92.85 percent, The curative rates of re-treated smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis was 84.20 percent, and the accomplished rates of treatment for smear negtive pulmonary tuberculosis was 91.15 percent. Achieved the goal of strategy(.2).1010233.22 years DALYs were retrieved from the disease and saved 40560.46 million yuan RMB because of the implementation of Mongolia tuberculosis control project between 2005～2009.(3).different tuberculosis knowledge related to different factors,but almost all of the response variables had relationship with culture. ( 4 ) .Based on 2005 ~ 2009 tuberculosis rates information,applying grey system GM (1, 1) model, the incidence of TB smear are 402/100 million, 396/100 million, 390/100 million, 383/100 million, 378/100 million, 373/100 million, 366/100 million,361/100 million, 356/100 million in Mongolia region between2010 to2018. And C = 0.347 < 0.5, P = 5.15 >0.95.prediction accuracy is advisiable, and the forecast effect is available.Conclusions (1).The epidemic situation of TB was in a steady state. But incidence of TB of young male was higher than female.(2).The coverage rate,cure rate of smear positive cases,the accomplishment of smear negative cases were achieved the requirements according to TB control program.The infective source was controlled,the infective road was cut,and protected the susceptiable population.This program had promoted the economic development,and improved the life quality of those people,and brought tremendous sociological and economic benefit.(3).almost all of the response variables had relationship with culture,so we need to announce related knowledge to that lower cultural group.(4)gray model GM (1, 1) can be applied to forcast TB project target.