The Impact Of RMB Exchange Rate Changes To Economic Growth In Shandong Province

As China's coastal economy of Shandong province in recent years, the strong momentum of economic development, comprehensive economic strength has increased, in 2009 the GDP of Shandong Province (GDP) 33896.65 billion Yuan, per capita annual income of urban residents reached 19,336.91 Yuan, among the nation's economic output third. Starting from the mid twentieth century, Shandong Province, the total import and export, foreign direct investment, such as accelerated growth of GDP, reflecting the Shandong Economic and interaction between the world economy growing, shown increased dependence on foreign, domestic and international economic role as a contact and therefore the exchange rate has increasingly become the focus of attention. From the 1997 Asian financial crisis, people want to devalue the RMB exchange rate heated debate. Whether or not to debate on depreciation do not end just a few years later, in 2002 and the beginning of a more intense appreciation of the RMB exchange rate or the discussion. In both controversy, given a lot of people should the RMB exchange rate depreciation or appreciation of a variety of reasons. All of these reasons include both qualitative analysis also includes quantitative analysis, both have perceptual theory of knowledge, there is some truth.Developing countries in the process of economic growth, exchange rate system and equilibrium exchange rate will usually as economic growth and corresponding change, generally speaking, the exchange rate will affect economic growth through import and export trade and direct investment, this paper through the way such as currency exchange rate transmission mechanism study influences economic growth, mainly from the following two aspects:1. Exchange rate growth impact conduction mechanism (import and export trade and foreign direct investment).2. Import and export trade and foreign direct investment changes on the concrete effect of economic growth.In short, with the Shandong Province and the economy becomes increasingly dependent on the degree of opening up, and the interaction with the world economy, the growing influence of the case, as the linked exchange rate of the economy at home and abroad has increasingly become the focus of attention. This article provides exchange rates and economic growth mechanism of interaction between theoretical and empirical analysis carried out this initial attempt and effort. Many papers and conclusions of a general theoretical model, to meet the model assumptions for other countries or regions, but the main thesis of the empirical analysis of Shandong Province 1984--2009 year data for the sample, its conclusions on the economy in the near future in Shandong Province and medium-term there is some reference value.This goal is both theoretical and empirical research on the actual exchange rate of economic growth. This paper reviews the theoretical research and experience of domestic and international research results; then introduces the theory of exchange rates affect economic growth model, and discuss foreign direct investment, gross national product (in Shandong Province, instead of GDP, into the total exports by such variables as growth in the real exchange rate effects; on the basis of statistical data on the real exchange rate and foreign direct investment, GDP, total import and export of the relationship between variables such as exchange rates and economic growth both on an empirical analysis. Finally , based on theoretical and empirical research findings, combined with the actual situation in Shandong Province, to raise questions about China's exchange rate policy implications and recommendations.