Forecasting The Hebei Province Model Of Foreign Trade Of The Eco-environment Based On GA-BP Neural Network

Along with our country foreign trade considerable development and international competitiveness increasing enhancement, the environment question is prominent actually day by day. This article took Hebei Province's foreign trade as a starting point and used the amount of unit output value industrial discharge and the foreign trade to calculate the amount of industrial discharge which caused by the foreign trade, through analysis, the quantity of foreign trade causes industry pollution discharge assumes the growth movement. Thus, the results declare Hebei Province foreign trade activity pulled the economy, but intensified the ecological environment worsening. Based on this phenomenon this article has established the early warning model based on the genetic algorithm improvement BP neural network.This article selected objectively and really the main industrial products foreign trade from the year 1998 to 2009 and the industrial discharge, processed in order to establishment early warning indicator system; Using the principal components analysis confirm the weight of early warning index and determines the early warning overall target finally. The paper used the phase of the year from 1998 to 2006's main import and export manufactured products' volume of trade and the next year early warning aggregative indicator as the training regulations input the early warning model of the genetic algorithm improvement the BP neural network to train network, achieved the preinstall precision, the network training finishes; Then used the phase of the year from 2007 to 2008's main import and export manufactured products' volume of trade and the next year early warning aggregative indicator as the testing regulations input the early warning model. Contrast the model output value with the actual value of the year of 2008 and 2009's actual early warning in order to exanimate the model accuracy and warn the warning degree of the 2010.The experimental resulted this early warning model has the good early warning effect, uses this model to achieve efficiently the early warning to Hebei Province's foreign trade ecological environment, thus achieves the function which prevents ahead of time to the ecological environment; Meanwhile, we can provide basis for the government to make policy of foreign trade and environment in order to perfect trade new order, realizes the sustainable development between the foreign trade and the ecological environment.