| Accompanying with the further development of economic globalization, foreign trade in every country is increasingly frequent. It is well know that the property of exchange rate is an important composite price index in international transactions, which fluctuation directly impacts each country's economic development. The impact caused by fluctuation in exchange rate is always the hot issue of Exchange Rate Economics. Qingdao is one of the most important port cities in east coast of China. Due to its more and more involvement in international economics and trade, increasing openness to the outside and fast economic growth in recent years, it is meaningful to analyze the influence elicited by the fluctuation in RMB exchange rate. This kind of research can help people better understand economic rules running in QD and propel this city's economic development.In this paper, theoretical analysis and Empirical analysis are combined together. Theories of Finance, Econometrics and International Trades are applied in the analysis. Co integration Test, Pulse Response and Error Correction Model are used in the Empirical Analysis to measure the actual influence size to QD economics caused by RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER). The peper analyse the influence mechanism of how REER influence Qingdao's economy.The first part of this paper systemizes the general theories of the infection between exchange rate and economics. Cointegration Test Theory and VAR model are applied to evaluate the impact to QD economics due to the RMB REER fluctuation. Conclusion can be derived that the appreciation of RMB REER would cause significant negative impact to QD economics analyzed no matter by long-term equilibrium model or short-term dynamics model. In the long run, 1% appreciation of RMB REER would lead to 0.148555% fall of GDP in QD. The RMB REER ranks the second variable compared with consumption, fixed investments and net export of Trade in Goods.In the second is to study how the REER impacts the Qingdao economy through trading systems. The results show that: the appreciation of RMB REER will worsen Qingdao's Trade Balance and then influncen the Qindao's economy.. Once the RMB REER appreciates by 1%, the imports in Qingdao will increases by 0.873874%, In the long run, Marshall-Lerner Condition is applicable in Qingdao, the appreciation of RMB REER will worsen the Current account and appears J-curve effect. In the short term, if the REER increase by 1%,it will make Qingdao's imports rise 0.249897%, exports fell 0.456997%.In the third is to study how the REER impacts the Qingdao economy through FDI. In the long run if the REER increase by 1%,it will make Qingdao's FDI decrease by 1.034149%. The short-term exchange rate fluctuation will impact the first-lagged FDI greatly.The policies and suggestions put forwarded at the end of article would help to lower the negative influence and promote the development of economy of Qingdao region.The main innovations of this paper lie in the following two:Concerning the scope of research, what the paper differentiates from others is that the paper concrete analysis and study the impact of RMB REER Appreciation on Qingdao's economic. The research on local region is much more meaningful and pertinent.Based on the research achievement, the paper build Long-term equilibrium model and the dynamic model of REER and Qingdao's economy.The influence of REER to Qingdao's economy are analyzed quantitatively. The paper estimates the overall impact size of how REER influence Qingdao's economy. And analyse how the REER influence Qingdao's economy through Tade balance and FDI... |
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