The Combination Forecasting Of Cotton Futures Price Range And The Analysis Of Operating Strategy

Xinjiang, as China's largest production base of commercial cotton, cotton industry of the autonomous region plays a decisive role in the national economy. The cotton price change is the biggest cotton industry uncertainty. The futures market price discovery in its own unique function, effectively circumvent an important role in the spot price risk. Therefore, the study of cotton futures price of cotton cultivation to improve the level of risk against price, and promote farmers increase income and enhance the competitiveness of Xinjiang's cotton industry as a whole has important practical significance.This choice of commodity futures exchange in Zhen Zhou cotton futures as the research object, select June 1, 2004 cotton futures launch to June 1, 2010, a total of 6 years and 6 months of futures contracts weekly / monthly maximum, minimum price as the study data, first using wavelet denoising and discount methods such as data pre-processing prediction. Then, after the data generally agree with the current economy and the use of prediction models, such as: BP neural network, Radial basis function neural network, Elman neural network, Wavelet network, SVM model, ARIMA model, GARCH model, GM model, etc. A variety of forecasting methods on a single operating range of cotton futures prices to predict. Single prediction methods to overcome their deficiencies exist, while using the combined forecasting method to predict and forecast evaluation system based on prediction models for the prediction results of different evaluation and comparison made, optimization model. At the same time interval the first time this method of prediction and optimization model predictions using the actual application to discuss the feasibility of, and practical strategies have been explored.