Analysis Of Uncertainties' Impact On Hubei Rural Residents' Consumption

After the 1990s China's economy system transferred from a planned economy to market economy and the transition is still in transition period. Hubei rural residents have lower and unstable income in our country. Hubei rural residents confronted with significant income uncertainty and expenditure uncertainty under the background cf the rural pension, health care, education system, which has not been perfected yet. These uncertainties restrict the rural residents' consumption level and structure, the development of China's economy long-term stability. Therefore, a comprehensive and thorough research about uncertainty factors on the influence of hubei rural residents' consumption is of important theoretical and practical significance.The paper selected Hubei Province which average consumption level has s(?)rong representation in our country, and focused on the analysis of uncertainties' impact on the consumption of rural residents in Hubei Province. First, the concept of uncertainty be defined, and then the paper analyzed the current uncertainties faced by the Hubei rural residents, finally, the paper made a qualitative analysis on the impact mechanism of uncertainties on rural residents' consumption.This dissertation is using the random sampling methods on rural residents in Hubei province, which are representing the level of national average consumption. As a family unit, selecting 156 rural families as a valid sample had carried on the questionnaire survey.Then the empirical analysis mainly focused on uncertainty factors on the impact of rural residents' consumption,which try to link up the farmer's actual consumption and psychological research by combining quantitative analysis and statistical analysis. The conclusions are following:the uncertainty of income and expenditure reduces the rural residents of consumer spending in Hubei province. And compared with the uncertain(?)y on expenditure, the inhibitory effect of the income uncertainty on the level of rural residents' consumption is more obvious in Hubei province. The uncertainty of medical spending for residents shows no significant effect on inhibition. From the opportunities for higher education to family members,analyzing the impact of education expenditure' uncertainty on residents' consumption.The number of college students and high school students, which every rural family has, has a negative correlation with the impact of household consumption in rural areas. The impact of the number of high school students on rural residents' areas consumption is even more significant.From the aspect of the opportunities for higher education to family members, that shows education expenditure' uncertainty led to rural residents' consumption reduced. On that basis, the policies and recommendations are following:continue to improve the distribution system, gradually raise the level of consumption of low-income groups; encourage the private economy to develop;improve the quality of agricultural products and establish the brand of agricultural products;stabilize the business income of farmers' family by increasing agricultural science and technology input and establishing dispersive risk mechanism; formulate migrant worker reasonable wage standard and protect migrant workers without reason defaults salary to stabilize the rural residents earning income; continue to improve the rural medical security system; perfect the existing education problem in charges and poverty-funded system.The possible innovations points are the new methods:the research adopts a questionnaire survey approach. The purview of survey area represents the national average consumption level of Hubei Province. Analyzing in view of our province countryside's situation, the paper have the results combing the first-hand micro date and calculating the proxy for uncertainty by using the variable characteristics of rural residents with model.