Research On Interest Rate Risk Circumvention Of Real Estate Enterprises Based On Interest Rate Futures

This thesis supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China - Research on risk management system of real estate development enterprise based on distributed Multi-agent (70872029) .Real estate industry is the pillar industry in China. The development of real estate enterprises is the important link which effect on our country's economic development. The fluctuations of real estate industry can cause the fluctuations of the whole national economy. So the risk management of real estate enterprises is not only related to real estate enterprises's own development, but also related to the whole national economy development. Real estate enterprises operation should collect a large amount of fund. Under the background of expecting that the interest rate will rise and our country regulating real estate prices at the macroscopic level, the interest costs of real estate enterprises will increase, and the profits of real estate enterprises will descend. So real estate enterprises should pay attention to avoid the interest rate risk and control the costs of interest for steady development of the enterprises.This thesis, based on the risk circumvention function of the interest rate futures, make use of three methods to research on interest rate risk of real estate enterprises and the effect of using interest rate futures to hedge. These three methods include interest risk identification by using financial index, interest risk measuring by using risk model and simulation method. In the stage of risk identification, establishing new quantitative index - financial liabilities leverage ratio and interest payment rate, to identify interest rate risk of real estate enterprises more accurately. In the stage of risk measuring, introducing interest rate gap model to measure interest rate risk of real estate enterprises. In the stage of simulation, simulate treasury bond futures price of our country according to the theory of interest rate futures price. Then utilize the treasury bond futures for hedging according to the treasury bond futures price based on the quantitative interest rate risk of real estate enterprises. Finally validate the effect of hedging. The result shows that the interest rate risk of Chinese real estate enterprises is high, and using interest rate futures for hedging can effectively avoid interest rate risk of real estate enterprises. Our country should gradually develop interest rate futures trading in order to satisfy the needs of enterprise to circumvent interest rate risk.