The Study Of Chinese Listed Companies Of The Financial Early Warning Indicator System

With the pace of global economic integration accelerate, enterprise's competitive environment become more ane more complex and fierce as the same time the possibility of company's finacial distress is larger.So the financial warning research of the Chinese listed companies has become more urgent. Although scholars have made many beneficial attempts and provided some constructive suggestions,the overseas researches or domestic researches haven't found a index system and model which was suitful for the whole market.This paper attempts to analyze the industry characteristics, in order to construct a set of financial early-warning index system and model which are applicable to the entire Chinese market.On the basis of previous studies,this paper firstly reviewes the study in this fields,clears the definition of the financial distress and compares the characteristics and applicability of different financial early warning models. And then for the characteristics of our company,determines the appropriate early warning index of different systems according to the industry. Finally uses principal component analysis and Logistic regression model to construct financial warning model. In the empirical research,this paper takes listed company in information technology category for example and based on the above research ideas,firstly choosese13 ST companies and 26 non-ST companies as study samples to construct a set of financial early-warning index system after analyzing industry characters.Then uses SPSS17.0 software to make principal component analysis in order to choose representative indexs which can be used to establish financial warning model.Finally tests the predict ability of the model by the use of training samples which include 4 ST companies and 8 non-ST companies.The test results show the model established in the paper has higher precision than other financial warning models.