Analysis Of The Effeciecy Of Shanghai Containerized Freight Futures Market

The development of Shanghai containerized freight futures makes up for the shipping derivatives market in China, which provides the tool of risk-preventing and investment for the container shipping market. However, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Futures has been disputed since the hedging function and potential risks are not easy to be predicted.Based on this background, the Efficient Market Hypothesis is introduced so as to analyze the efficiency of Shanghai containerized freight futures market. The basic knowledge of the Efficient Market Hypothesis is introduced firstly. The common-used efficiency test methods of futures market are classified by four categories and those application principles and properties are compared. Then the Container Freight Futures, trading platform, investors and transaction functionality are systematically and completely explained to analyze the features of Shanghai Containerized Freight Futures market. Based on the above, arbitrage test and model predictions comparison test are applied for the efficiency analysis of futures market of European route and U.S. West route. The test results tend to indicate that the futures market of European route and U.S. West route is not efficient. The market is far from reaching a mature stage and the risk is relatively high.The analysis result is helpful for the development of Shanghai Containerized Freight Futures to some extent.