The Research On The Deveolopment Framework Of China And Association Of Southeast Asian Nations

The post-financial-crisis era approaches in 2010. The global economic situation is not optimistic along with the decline of trade volume, the recession in export market, and the spread of trade protectionism. China-ASEAN Free Trade Area established in 2010 January 1 under the dual pressure of economic depression and trade protection. The regional economies integration theory may explain the reason why the CAFTA could emergence and development. The theory mainly includes the Customs union theory, the free-trade area theory, theory of leading market, and the agreement division of labor theory. Financial crisis's conduction theory elaborates the influence brought by crisis to the country which participates in regional economies integration.There are three stages during the development of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, i.e., the constructive consultation, the efficient cooperation, and the comprehensive establishment. In fact, the two-sided economic development of Chinese and ASEAN has the following characteristics:the large-scale growth of trade volume, continuous development in service trade, and mutual investment deepens constantly. In post-financial-crisis era, the ASEAN countries resort to the positive economic policies to confront the adverse impact brought by financial crisis. The establishment of CAFTA will benefit for the situation of regional trade, and also it represents an optimistic signal to dealing with trade protection. Through the regional economies theory, it can be concluded that the Trade-creation effect appears gradually and the interior trade in CAFTA won't create Trade-shift effect in large scale influenced by the rigid trade direction. Generally speaking the Trade-creation effect is bigger than the Trade-shift effect. And the dynamic economy effect act on the stimulation to economic resurgence. By the way of index system, the research on the competitiveness and complementary of CAFTA demonstrated that there are both complementary advantages and intense competition in partial product in our country and the ASEAN country.Under background of post-financial-crisis era, there are both opportunity and challenge in CAFTA. On the one hand, the establishment of CAFTA stimulates the bilateral international trade environment to get better rapidly; and benefits for coping with the trade protection together; the cooperation for East Asian economy integration is clearer than before. On the other hand, the negative influence of "Chinese Treat theory" still existed; the competition between China and ASEAN will be intense than before; the various levels of development in ASEAN countries hinder the trade development as well as the narrow market. Under this situation CAFTA will present three tendencies:The bilateral economic cooperation advancement will be more thoroughly; China will promote the East Asian cooperation through CAFTA; the aggravating competition brings increasing trade conflict.Under background of post-financial-crisis era, the new tendencies and the new characteristics which China and the ASEAN faced had decided China and the ASEAN should construct the cooperation method through the reasonable institutional arrangements and policy to achieve the mutual benefit and all wins. In the cooperation idea, it should advocate to region cooperation instead of wait for the market recovery (?)nd advocate the "cooperation opportunity theory" resists the "China Treat theory". In the trade domain, the main policy suggestions include five aspects:first, utilizing the cargo trade development powerful condition to promote the services trade; second, developing FDI to avoid the non-tariff barrier positively; third, improving the situation of "lightly the single layer two" in CAFTA through making use of service trade and FDI simultaneously; fourth, transforming the industrial structure to reduce the trade friction; fifth, to attach importance to the effect of small and medium enterprise. In the trade domain, the main policy suggestions include two points:first, to develop the financial cooperation with positive attitude and careful decision-making; second, to expand dominant position of RMB steady and positively in the bilateral trade.