| Real estate, as the guiding, basic and pillar industry of the national economy contributing to the economy growth around 2.1% to 2.7% as estimated, has great impact on the development of other industries, even on the periodically fluctuations of the whole economy. Real estate industry barely exists during the planned economy era in China when the housing and accommodations were distributed by the welfare-oriented public housing distribution system. After the Reform and Opening, housings gradually appeared in the market, as the development of market-oriented economy, and it hit its booming point by the time of 1990's, when real estate was introduced to our daily life as an industry for the first time. By entering the 21st century, real estate industry in China was turning into a new era, with the significant increase in the housing property area, the diversity of constructional styles and the importance in the national economy, which in turn indicates the continuously increasing demands of capital. From the real estate industry started booming to today, within the past two decades, it had become the pillar industry of the national economy. Statistics shows that for the first two quarters of year 2010,19747.12 billion RMB had been investigated to the industry, which was an increase of 38.1% and was 20.1% out of the total investigation to fixed assets. The development of real estate industry had been stimulating the development of its affiliated industries, as well as contributing to improving the housing conditions, creating job opportunities, adjusting the industrial structure and accelerating the development of national economy.Since banks provide most of the capital for real estate investigation and marketing, the quality of the bank credited funds is affected by the quality of real estate credited funds by a great extend. Also, the risks of real estate market have been transferred to the banks. However, more and more capitals flow into the real estate industry as the price of housing keeps rising, which may leads to a devastated situation that both the banks and the real estate investigators will bankrupt if the real estate price collapse. The real estate industry in China is still in its infancy, with much entrepreneurship most of whom are small businesses, while the authority still needs to complete the relative regulations and rules to stabilize the market.The financial crisis happened in U.S. is a big trauma to the world economy, and its aftershocks keep striking. To avoid the same crisis happening in China, a well-established credit evaluation system for small real estate business is essential. This system is supposed to be comprehensive and objective to fully evaluate the health of the real estate entrepreneurships, authorize credit to those with higher fitness and stability while excluding those with low credits and high risks, and thus keep the national economy developing in a healthy and stable way.In this thesis, the risk characteristics of medium-sized and small enterprises in real estate industry of China is analyzed, a credit evaluation criteria system and its methodology is proposed based on credit risk model, a credit risk evaluation model is also established based on Logistic Regression. The motivation behind evaluating the credit of medium-sized and small enterprises is to avoid possible loss to the finance body, here mostly commercial banks, whose loan is the main resources for the enterprises, and to reduce the impact to the economy stability. Information imbalance is the main factor that introduces the credit risk to the enterprises, where on the one hand the banks could make over loan or mistaken loan based on their insufficient knowledge about the debtors'financial status, on the other hand, the debtor might hide or make a false report their financial status to get loans from banks, which increases the risks. Meanwhile, the nature of periodicity of real estate and its foam economy also poses their impacts on the credit risks for medium-sized and small enterprises.Some previous researches had been done in the credit risks for medium-sized and small enterprises, however, most of them just focus on the risk causes analysis and risk categorization, or suggestion on how to avoid these risks. A few researcher did empirical analysis, but by evaluating the credit risk of the whole real estate industry on the macro-economy level, or by evaluating an enterprise based on its financial data. Though a lot of oversea researchers did empirical analysis, they mainly focus on personal mortgages rather than small enterprises. By analyzing the medium-sized and small real estate enterprises credit risk characteristics, this thesis claims that the internal causes of the credit risks for those enterprises are its operation, financial status and their manager quality, while the external causes are mainly the marketing risks and policy risks.In this thesis,12 financial theoretical indexes and 2 qualitative indexes are initially chosen to construct the evaluation system for the credit risks of medium-sized and small real estate enterprises. Factor analysis method is utilized to simplify the financial indexes to 6 independent variables, and a logistic model is adopted for regression analysis. All three methods in logistic regression analysis, namely Enter, Forward Conditional and Backward Conditional methods are deployed on a sample set consisting 86 enterprises, where the Forward Conditional method yields worst accuracy while the other two have similar accuracy. This Backward Conditional method is finally used since it better interprets the impacting factors for credit risks. From the modeling and its results we come to the conclusion that five factors, namely Fl, F2, F3, F4, F5 and entrepreneurship quality are the main factors that impact the default risk of an enterprise, where F1 includes total asset growth rate, net asset growth rate, net return of assets and total return of assets, F2 includes balance sheet ratios, assets turnover ratio, F4 is inventory turnover ratio and F5 mainly includes income growth rate. These factors mainly focus on the quality of the assets, debt paying ability, product turnover ability and cash flow. Furthermore, entrepreneur quality also impacts the default risk. Therefore, letting these factors get more weighted when evaluating the credit of medium-sized and small real estate businesses could then further complete the evaluation system. |
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