Stress Test For Real Estate Loans Of Commercial Bank

Commercial-banks are special institutions operate risk, it is essential to modern commercial bank to identify risk effectively and control it. With the rapid development of financial globalization, the innovation of financial services and the promotion of various financial derivatives, the global banking industry is facing unprecedented opportunities and risks, competition among domestic commercial banks in China more and more intense, but whether the concept of risk manage-ment, or technology, methods and so there is a gap with the developed countries banks. In the supervision of banks, since the international financial crisis, econ-omic crisis, sovereign debt crisis broke out frequently, China's commercial banks increasingly stringent regulatory requirements, in order to strengthen the grasp of extreme risk, In 2007, China began a nationwide promotion of stress test to com-mercial banks formally. Some cities in China in recent years, real House prices rise much higher than the pay level of the residents, our government increasingly intensified macro-control on the real estate industry, In this case, we take the real estate market in Chengdu for example, and two banks were selected to conduct the same stress test scenarios, and then explain the changes in the real estate market will result in difference of banks. Firstly, the paper analyzes the theoretical deve-lopment of commercial bank risk management and the modern theory of risk management approach—tress testing, to promote state-owned commercial banks in China, shares of banks, city commercial banks to do the stress test. Secondly, the paper analyzes the real estate market, especially the development of Chengdu's commercial housing market in recent years, the housing process and the volume and price movements, summarize different policies the government adopted in different historical periods in the real estate market, From the development of the real estate market in recent years, China's real estate market, especially the comm ercial housing market, high dependence on macroeconomic policies, strong volatility. Then, the paper established a VAR model, the selected indicators include: residential sales area of Chengdu, the average price of residential transactions, more than 5-year loan rate and bank lending, non-performing loan ratio, and based on the model constructed in the three scenarios of non-performing loan ratio of banks to stress test。Finally, the paper puts forward corresponding policy recom-mendations:First, the regulatory authorities to actively promote stress testing techniques; Second, commercial banks, especially some city commercial banks and rural commercial banks should strengthen data collection and collation; and the third is the introduction of mortgage lending, Pledge, letter of credit and other risk mitigation instruments; fourth is to strengthen risk management and control of the city commercial banks and rural commercial banks; Fifth, strictly regulate the real estate market, control prices。...