| Since 2003,the growth of China's real estate investment has been always at a high level,the overall price of the real estate market are raising rapidly,especially in Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou and other economically developed cities,as well as some second-tier cities, the growth rate of real estate prices are even more alarming.Meanwhile,the hot money are inflowing rapidly to China.Therefore,rese-arch on the relationship between the hot money inflows and the real estate market price have some impact on forward-looking.Firstly, the article describes the concept of hot money, features, size and the main driving forces of the hot money. Then we propose a new method of calculation of hot money.Secondly, in order to analyze the link between the hot money inflows and the prices of the whole real estate market,we use a combination of theoretical and empirical approaches to demonstrate the relationship between them. In the Part of the theoretical analysis, we use the graphic method to analyze the influence of the hot money flow to the real estate market.We conclude that the the hot money inflows will lead to higher prices of the real estate market which is seemed as one of the typical non-tradable goods in the long run. In the empirical analysis, this article uses the data of the first quarter in 2002 to the forth quarter in 2010, analyzes the influence of hot money on China's real estate prices. Through the establishment of VAR model for the relevant inspection and using Granger causality tests, we get a conclusion that hot money inflows is one-way Granger cause to promoting the price of the real estate market as a whole.Again, in order to analyze the influence of the hot money inflow to the various categories of our real estate markets, this paper uses first quarter of 2002 to the fourth quarter of 2010 of hot money and real estate market prices for each category data, through the establishment of VAR model, and based on its pulse test, we can conclude that the impact of hot money on the luxury residential market will exist for a long time.In order to analyze the hot money inflowing to the real estate market prices, the paper followed by a variance decomposition, then found that hot money inflows of non-residential real estate sales will change price,the largest proportion up to 56.90795 percent, residential real estate sales on the interpretation of the lowest percentage of price changes, only 0.8008885 percent.Finally, based on theoretical analysis and empirical results,we put forward policy recommendations on problems of real estate market and the control of hot money.In view of the hot money in China has some real estate speculation,we should guide hot money in China's model of the development of appropriate regulatory measures. |
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