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Based On Mgm (1, N) Model Of The Iron And Steel Enterprises Gas Supply And Demand Balance Forecast,

Posted on:2012-05-09Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:H J LiFull Text:PDF
GTID:2219330368481824Subject:System theory
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
An incorporated business enterprise of iron and steel produces a large number of byproduct coal gas in the producing process. All kinds of coal gas accounting for 40% of the total energy consumption is also a important secondary energy of steel enterprise. Through utilizing the byproduct coal gas reasonable, can save energy, decrease the energy consumption and reduce the pollution to environment. An accurate forecasting for coal gas supply and demand is the premise of reasonable utilization of coal gas. Based on the coal gas supply and demand accurate prediction cannot change timely, decrease the current situation and the cost of coal gas discharging. This paper based on MGM (1, n) model used for the prediction of the balance of byproduct coal gas supply and demand can forecast energy balance, and provide the scientific basis.Using factor analysis and gray correlation analysis method, this paper pretreated the influence factors on occurrence and consumption byproduct coal gas based on the investigation to steel enterprises embed. Then it predict the complicated nonlinear system with grey multi-factor MGM (1, n) model on this foundation.Using the method raised in this paper, the results show that the gray prediction MGM (1, n) model is suitable for the occurrence and consumption forecast of byproduct coal gas taking a typical example steel enterprise byproduct coal gas for supply and demand. Results of factor analysis used to predict the byproduct coal gas occurrence in this paper are better than neural network forecast, GM (1, n) prediction and actual production data. The forecast results of MGM (1, n) model based on choosing the appropriate factor with Grey correlative degree calculation used to forecast of byproduct coal gas consumption are better than other forecast method.
Keywords/Search Tags:byproduct coal gas, the balance between supply and demand, factor analysis, grey incidence analysis, MGM(1,n)
PDF Full Text Request
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