Foreign Economy And Employment -Theoretical Analysis And An Empirical Test (1978-2009)

Since the reform and opening, Chinese witnesses a great advance in foreign trade, which brings about positive sides and also negative sides. After China's entrance of WTO, it fully integrates into the international economy and comprehensively expands the foreign economy, these effects of which appears to go further and deepen. Liberalization of foreign trade economy has been fully affecting the labor employment, mobility and income. For China, a labor-abundant developing country, to research the effect of trade liberalization on employment so as to develop reasonable and effective trade strategies, and then to improve the employment system of labor market, improve the relevant social security policy, which can be in response to adverse effects foreign economic brought on employment, is of great practical and theoretical significance.This article divides foreign economy into import and export, foreign direct investment, and respectively analyzes on these factors'relationship with employment. As foreign exchange reserves are significant form of foreign economy, this article also analyzes the employment effects of foreign exchange reserves. The amount of foreign exchange reserves today, both in official and private, are the hot issues. This paper studies the relationship between foreign exchange and employment looking forward to provide a new perspective for examining the foreign exchange reserves from the amount. The above factors will be demonstrated both from theoretical and empirical aspects.This article will be divided into four parts.Firstly, it is Introduction, introducing the research significance, content and method.Secondly, on the basis of comprehensive review of the relevant documents, this paper primarily establishes a theoretical analysis framework for international trade and employment relationship, which is seen as the theoretical basis of empirical research.Thirdly, it collects and summarizes the data of foreign economy, foreign exchange reserves and employment of 1978-2009, and based on the provincial panel data making use of panel unit root test, co-integration test and error correction model and other methods of econometric analysis, analyzes the relationship of Import, export and employment, Foreign Direct Investment and employment, Foreign exchange saving and employment. On the basis of time series analysis, it examined the employment effects of foreign exchange reserves in the four variables. It comprehensively evaluates China's International trade effect on employment, and provides theoretical basis and empirical support for a reassessment of China's foreign trade policy. Research results show that there is a significant positive correlation between China's export,import and employment ; a positive correlation to some degree between the foreign direct investment and employment; a positive correlation between the foreign exchange reserves and employment. Besides there are large differences as to regional economy development, so, according to regional differences, this paper divided the country into eastern, central and western regions, and carried out empirical researches for them respectively so as to compare the regional difference of foreign economic impact on employment.Fourthly, according to the theory analysis and the empirical results, this paper puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions, hoping that these countermeasures will be of good feasibility.