The Empirical Study Of Value Assessment Of Risk Investment Project Based On Binary Tree Method

In the venture capital project, its technical development and market environment facing a high degree of uncertainty, if investment is irreversible, so investors in advance of the need for good assessment in order to provide strong support for its decision. The value of the risk assessment of investment projects, the traditional evaluation methods can not effectively reflect the strategic value inherent in the project and the value of management flexibility, need to introduce a new evaluation method to assess investment risk.In this paper the value of the risk assessment of investment projects to sort out and review the literature, the second chapter introduces the risk factor analysis, price-earnings ratio method and the NPV value of the three traditional project evaluation methods, analysis of the three traditional The project value of risk assessment methods for valuation of investment projects applicability and limitations. Investment of risk assessment methods of traditional values and modern comparative study of valuation methods, and pointed out the limitations of traditional assessment methods and the use of modern binary model of real option value of investment projects assessment of risk rationality; the third chapter, risk-free sets Lee theory and replication principles for clues on the binary tree model is real options theory, the basic model and derive binary tree; IV investment project has a risk-based real options characteristics and risk factors of the project itself, the appropriate adjustment, analysis and construction of the extended binary tree model assessment method in the binary value of the study, the binary tree model in Venture Capital Project Evaluation of adaptability; Chapter binary tree model using the extended the risk of investment projects on a real case for an empirical study, and the key variables in the model sensitivity analysis conducted, the last of the full-text content of the summary and outlook.In this paper, qualitative analysis of quantitative research as a precondition to start, discuss the risks to determine the value of investments and related investment decision. Combined binomial model, using extended binary tree embedded in the calculation of static net present value, net present value method can be amended and supplemented as expected that the project will invariably develop defects, can better grasp the risk of investment project management flexibility. Real Options and NPV binary tree method has the inherent unity of the former is a kind of latter amendments and supplements, rather than negative. In applications, this combination of real options extended binary tree binary tree and the basic steps to establish a manufacturing racks on the risk of a value assessment of investment projects. Binary model, but requires a lot of information is set, that is, to know every time options on the underlying assets and the expected price data, which is a binary tree method of application deficiencies. Objective of this thesis is the value of investment projects for effective risk assessment of investment projects to the value of risk assessment the role of better ideas.