The Monetary Union Research On The Establishment Of The "Ruble Zone" In The CIS Countries

The financial crisis triggered by U.S. subprime crisis spread to the world, but also economists think the change of global pattern in the international monetary, some scholars had said that the global economy is unbalanced by the fundamental reason is that dollar-dominated international monetary system. Diversified global monetary system is a general trend, the euro and the dollar is able to compete as an international currency, as important point is that the launch of the euro as the common currency euro zone, and then to the global economy is very significant. Monetary Union as a system favor to prevent the currency crisis comes into public views. Historically there had been a number of regional monetary cooperation, such as the Latin Monetary Union, the Scandinavian Monetary Union, owing to disagreements about economic and monetary policies broke down. The former Soviet Union disintegrated caused the disintegration of the "ruble zone" of monetary union.Hence, this paper will look toward the CIS. The CIS countries have a long history of monetary cooperation, as early as in the former Soviet Union prior to the use of the ruble as a common currency. Although with drastic changes of the Soviet Union and the socialist countries in Eastern Europe, the ruble zone ultimately split, monetary cooperation in the CIS countries still has a historical basis. It's important for the future economic development of CIS 10 countries, especially in term of monetary cooperation, to empirical research on the financial situation of CIS 10 countries and draws lessons from successful experiences of Euro area's creation and operation. Studying the issue of construction of the CIS countries "ruble zone" monetary union, the theoretical significance is that whether "the development of the CIS can achieve a measure of Optimum Currency Areas", "they meet the conditions to achieve monetary union", etc. Proposed the concept of building monetary union in the CIS countries is one feasibility report of monetary cooperation in the CIS, based on the characteristics of economic development in CIS countries, current and future prospects of economic development and international experience.In this paper, according to the background of the optimum currency areas theory and the continuous development of the latest research, the economic, trade and unemployment in the CIS countries compare to the optimal currency area criteria, and then draw the conclusion of this paper.The first part first introduces the background, significance of selecting the topic, research methods and structure. Relative literatures published both here and abroad are analyzed and summarized.Second, this paper describes the development process of the OCA theory, including its three stages: early optimal currency area criteria,70 of the 20th century theory of optimal currency areas and the 20th century,80 years after the theory of optimal currency areas.The third part is mainly a historical review of monetary cooperation in CIS countries; present situation of currency integration is analyzed.The fourth part analyzes the feasibility of monetary union of the CIS countries. First, using the GG-LL model by Krugman analyzes their endophytism. Through the various criteria of OCA Theory, such as synchronism of business cycle, unemployment rate, economic opening, whether each of the CIS countries verify optimal currency area criteria. It objectively and truly reflects the feasibility of building monetary union in the CIS countries.The fifth part is based on the feasibility of part four, discussing the path selection of monetary union in the CIS countries. We analyze the differences between "dollarization" and single currency "Euro", and explores specific path adapted to the conditions existing in CIS countries. Finally, we hope that the analysis of the current debt crisis of the European Monetary Union can give the CIS monetary union enlightenments.At last, based on the theory analysis and empirical research, a conclusion is reached that CIS countries have theoretical and realistic basis to establish optimal currency areas, adopting the euro model based on the existing economic integration and using the ruble as the single currency. CIS multilateral partial payment and settlement system can take a phased manner. When a multilateral payments and settlement systems continuously promote and improve in the CIS countries, they will enter a later stage, to determine currency exchange rate fluctuations between the boundaries, and ultimately build a true currency union, to achieve "optimal currency area". East Asia will promote the "Asian Dollar". This paper wishes that Asia can get some references from the study of building the monetary union in CIS countries, and the united eastern currency will finally come into being.