Study On Leading Sector Selection Of Modern Service Industry Of Jiangsu Province In The Open Economy

Service industry has been a commanding elevation point for economic development throughout the world gradually. And development of service industry is an important aspect for shifting the mode of economic growth and upgrading the industrial structure. Almost all the developed countries regard the modern service industry development as strategic point of industrial evolution and important task of keeping economic competitiveness. In China, the conception of'Modern service'was firstly posed in the report of Fifteenth Party Congress and then it has been widely used. Now, modern service industry has been a hot topic of study. But in fact, the proportion of service industry in the national economy is less than the level of other developed provinces and cities, and even lower than that of national average level in 2009. Therefore, to select correctly the leading industry of modern service industry of Jiangsu has great significance to the promotion of all-round development of Jiangsu's service industry at this stage.Service industry has been a commanding elevation point for economic development throughout the world gradually. And development of service industry is an important aspect for shifting the mode of economic growth and upgrading the industrial structure. Almost all the developed countries regard the modern service industry development as strategic point of industrial evolution and important task of keeping economic competitiveness. In China, the conception of'Modern service'was firstly posed in the report of Fifteenth Party Congress and then it has been widely used. Now, modern service industry has been a hot topic of study. But in fact, the proportion of service industry in the national economy is less than the level of other developed provinces and cities, and even lower than that of national average level in 2010. Therefore, to select correctly the leading industry of modern service industry of Jiangsu has great significance to the promotion of all-round development of Jiangsu's service industry at this stage. On basis of reviewing relevant research on the development of modern service industry and the selection of leading industry of home and abroad, this paper makes a theoretical analysis on the connotation, characteristics and classification of modern service industry and summarizes the choice criterion and the main factors of leading modern service industry. The main choice criterions of leading service industry for modern service are:Hirschman Criterion, Rostow Criterion, dynamic comparative advantage, the joint development and contribution to the society. The main influencing factors include demand motility (demand scale, growth rate of demand, income elasticity of demand), production factor input (core elements input and general elements input), interaction of industries (industrial relevancy among the modern service industries, and industrial relevancy between modern service industries and manufacturing), industrial competitiveness, contribution to the society and guidance of government policy, etc. And the paper also describes the current development of modern service industry in Jiangsu from multiple perspectives including structural changes of modern service industry, foreign development of modern service industry and comparison of between Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai. Then the paper establishes an index system which contains five first-level indicators including demand motility, production factor input, industrial relevancy, industrial competitiveness, contribution to the society and 20 secondary indicators to select the leading industry of modern service, on basis of previous studies and the main influencing factors of leading industry of modern service. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is applied to evaluate the performance of modern service industry of Jiangsu and principal component analysis (PCA) is also used to test the results from AHP. With cluster analysis, it is evident that these industries such as Real-estate Sector, Financial Sector, Education Sector, Transportation/Warehousing/Postal Sector and Leasing/Commerce Service Sector give a good performance. But according to current policy guidance, Financial Sector should be omitted and the remaining four can be viewed as the leading industries which should be vigorously developed in current stage. Furthermore, some other industries are chosen out as the leading industries in the next stage. They are scientific research/Technical service/Geological exploration Sector, Water/Environment/Public facility management Sector and Health/Social security/Social welfare Sector which have greater development potential and competitiveness compared with Zhejiang and Shanghai. At last, corresponding and concrete countermeasures are proposed for promoting the development of the four modern service leading industry of Jiangsu.