Estimating And Testing, Var Sub-sites Based On Bayes Method

VaR (Value at Risk) , the risk value method, specifically refers to a certain levelof probability (confidence), the portfolio of financial assets or a specific period oftime in the future the most lost. The basic idea of VaR is to use historical dataportfolio returns to predict the future situation, and now more distant from thehistorical data associated with the current financial market is very low, the early dataonly to illustrate the history of the problem, can not re?ect the current situation,but the classical statistical methods over-reliance on historical data, which makesthe estimated VaR's accuracy and e?ectiveness reduced. The paper establishes amethod based on VaR of Bayes model to estimate the financial markets value atrisk, investors can use the observational data and historical information to adjustthe risk model, the value of the predicted risk more accurately re?ect the currentmarket risks, in order to make the right investment decisions and avoid unnecessaryloss.