The Quantitative Analysis Of Chinese Industry Impacted By The 2008 Financial Crisis

When the 2008 financial crisis spreaded around the world, the world economy rapidly shrinked, though our country's economy was not as serious as developed countries that there was a serious recession, however, China's economy was also adversely affected. Many scholars regard that this financial crisis has the world's greatest influence within the 1920s, they also analyzed the cause, the transmission mechanism of this financial crisis and so on.According to the impact on our national macroeconomic and the real economy which are transmited by the financial crisis and the relationships between industrial and economic cycles, this article divided them into three kinds with the correlation analysis:cycle type industry (30), dovish model industry (4) and change type industry (5); According to industry's life cycle stage, where they divided into growth industry (15), maturation industry (23) and occasional recession industries (1). According to the proportion of industrial output which the industry value accounts for, they fall into pillar industry and the pillar industries, among them, the pillar industry (12), the pillar industry (27).According to the relationships between fiscal policy tools like the financial budget defray, tax income and industry growth, I analyze the influence on the industrial growth which is transmited by fiscal policy, and the results show that D kind of industry has the largest financial positive influence, and cycle type industry is not directly influenced. According to the analysis on the influence of different industries growth through monetary policy tools like the interest rate, M1 etc, I found that M1 plays mutual promoting role in the changes of every industries growth,but interest rates have significant influence on certain industries;According to the cross-section fixed effects model in investment growth and industry growth in every industries, I draw in that the influences on investment growth from different industries are different, mainly in three aspects:First, the influence on industry growth from investment is significantly 0 (22); Second, the influence on industry growth from the investment growth is significantly positive (12); Third, the influence on industry growth from investment is significantly negative (5). According to the export value and the panel data analysis in industry growth, I conclude that the influence on industry growth from export value is different, but obviously the influence on export-oriented industry from export value is positive, and other industries are affected significantly to 0. Through the analysis in the international trade and capital flows, I found that the influences on imports and export growth from exchange rate and FDI are great. Meanwhile international oil price and iron ore price affect our country,s import and export growth greatly.Through the event study,1 conclude that until December 2010, after the crisis broken out, not only did our country's cycle type industry not suffer heavy losses but also our country's industry growth has been significantly improved under the influence of our country expansionary fiscal policy,aggressive monetary policy and other policy. But specific to various industries, which include ten industries which suffered serious negative effect, the most serious are communication equipments, computers and other electronic equipment manufacturing, instruments and cultural and office machinery manufacturing and non-metallic minerals and so on. however, other mining industry, tobacco products industry and beverage manufacturing are not affected by the financial crisis. Finally, according to the analysis above, I conclude the transmission process which our industries were affected by the financial crisis.