Researches About The Capital Account Based On Risk Prevention

Post-crisis era provides a good opportunity to promote the internationalization of RMB. The improvement of the degree of openness of capital account is an important prerequisite for achieving that. So, we have come to terms about currency swap agreements with South Korea, Malaysia, Belarus, Indonesia, Argentina and other countries since 2008. We also established an offshore RMB market in Hong Kong and issues RMB bonds, and so on. As we all know, there is considerable risks during the open of capital account, and we take step by step. Before that, we should analyze our economic reality; monitor all kinds of potential risks strictly. And then, we can promote the opening the capital account smoothly, in order to realize the RMB internationalization.In this article, beginning with the theoretical and real istic support of the opening of capital account, we thought about the non-balance characteristics, and the background of promoting the internationalization of RMB. Then we analyzed the risks deeply, and we used VAR regression analysis in order to make a model to show the relationship of the potential risk indicator with openness indexes of capital account (scale, indicator structure and term structure). Then we establish the general idea of the financial regulatory reform, " relax regulation conditions and strengthen dynamic supervision relatively". That is to say, we should pay attentions to monitor and control risks, and finally to achieve a more monitoring under less limited size. On these basis, we give some creative proposes.