The Empirical Analysis Of The Relation Between The Fluctuation Of Prices And Economic Growth Of Our Country

In recent years, due to economic development the obvious imbalance situation of all over the country, there are also big differences the development situation of each industry. That would make people think:when each area the economic situation is not the same, the state of different regions, different industry still making a similar macro policy without considering the regional difference may be result in macroeconomic policy effect to sell at a discount greatly, sometimes may also produces the opposite results, therefore, the different area, the economic growth rate of and the price of the relationship between the analysis is necessary, finding out similarities and differences among national, different industries and different region, in order to make macroeconomic policy more effective.This paper, by using the annual data, using VAR model were studied in different areas and different industry between growth and inflation volatility of the relationship. This paper tries to analyze the similarities and differences among the different area, the different industries and the whole economy in growth and inflation rate fluctuation relationship. in order to provide a reference wether need to consider the characteristics of different areas or different industries when the government make the macro economic policy. This paper found that:Generally speaking, the relationship of between economic growth and inflation in different areas or different industries perform the same, however, there still exists respective characteristics of different industries or different areas.This paper tries to comprehensively research and comb the relationship between prices and economic fluctuations cycle, and main idea can get from the following four chapters:The first chapter is introduction. First of all, this paper points out that in the preface of the problems and puts forward the significance of the subject. Prices as a measure of the socialist economic system is an important index of economic operation, his volatility changes not only affect the state's policy, it can affect everybody's decision too.For example:enterprise will because inflation is expected to increase in stock, to increase the bank's loan; Residents will increase consumption because inflation will eat their money, thus affect macro capital stock level. Moreover, if the inflation rate is too high.it will affect the real Purchasing Power of lower income level people.because they may not have the capital to buy securities assets.so the more polarization between the rich and the poor, lead to social unrest, which affects the operation of the country. If we can get the internal law of price changes and set the critical point and if the economy to run more than the critical will exert a series of economic policy to influence so that economic can smooth development!Chapter 2 discusses China prices and economic fluctuation relationship theory, the different stages of economic development with different concept of consumption. the market main body to the economic activity cognitive deepening, so that economic activity more complex coupled with the degree of market economy in our country more and more high, we can not only use the administrative measures,so we must give more attention to study it.Prices and GDP are the nation's very important economic targets, therefore, the study of their respective operation law and they influenced each other relationship seem very important, so research is very necessary.This chapter will give the preliminary specification theory on prices and economic fluctuations.mainly talk about the economic cycle theory, commodity prices on economic fluctuations of the influence of mechanism analysis.The third chapter basically from the perspective of positivism to Chinese price (CPI) and economic growth (GDP) volatility and they wave between whether there is a inherent connection, in this chapter, explained the variable selection and the choice of the sample data and data of the processing method. In this chapter in the second quarter of CF filter method the thought of a brief explanation. In the selection of filter method, this paper used the CF filter, moreover CF filtering also able to extract more low frequency band, so he can be detected lower frequency of economic fluctuations, In the third quarter of this chapter is consist of three parts: the first part analyze the relationship between the national GDP growth rate and CPI. and the second part respectively analyze the relationship between the first, two, three industry's GDP growth rate and CPI, At the same time comparing their relationship with the national's. The third part respectively analyze the relationship between the east, the middle.the west area's GDP growth and CPI, At the same time comparing their relationship with the national's.The above analysis methods include descriptive statistical analysis, ping stability inspection (ADF), Granger Causality Test (Granger Causality Test), VAR model and impulse response function.This paper last chapter is the conclusion. This chapter is the summary of full text, and give this paper's deficiency.