The Study Of Optimal Hedging Ratio Of Our Metal Futures Market

The development of our futures market although experience about 20 years of development, China's futures market still needs further development compared with international advanced countries. Because of the futures market can provide advanced and efficient information. It has the function that is avoiding the risk, namely hedging.The basic function of futures markets are price discovery and hedging. While hedging is the driving force of the development of the futures market. Hedging theory mainly comes from early Tom hicks and Keynes's point of view; they put forward the theory of traditional hedging. In the 1950s, Brooke working-based squad (forward) experts on new concept of hedging theory, which laid the cornerstone of modern hedging theory. In the 1960s, Jerome stein and Leland John applied the invest theory to the futures market research, namely dynamic hedging theory.This article selects the Shanghai futures exchange of copper, aluminum, zinc, three metals as the research object, mainly from the static and dynamic perspectives, using OLS Regression model, BVAR, multivariate GARCH, Rolling Regression (etc) model to highlight China's metal market optimal hedging ratio, and valued each model of hedging of performance. Research results show that:Firstly, there is different hedging ratio with different hedging model.Secondly, it can be find that hedging effect of OLS model is good in static hedging model, and the model of the Rolling Regression have advantages compared with other dynamical model, according to the different models of hedging of performance evaluation.The main structure, by four parts, the first part: Namely the first chapter, introducing the research background, significance, innovation and future. The second part: the second and the third chapter introduced the development of futures market, and the function of hedging briefly. Part 3: IV and v, mainly introducing the theory of hedging ratio, and the research model of each model by empirical study of hedging performance. Part IV: the sixth chapter and follow-up, summarized the research conclusion, significance and prospect, and put forward the corresponding suggestion.