Fluctuations In Interest Rates Cycle Comparison With China And The United States

This dissertation discusses the interest rate cycles between China and America. Taking Federal Funds Effective Rate(July,1st,1954～Dec,30th,2011) and Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate(Oct,8th,2006～Dec,30th,2011) as objects, it studies the cyclical characters by spectral analysis, and makes comparison between China and America. The dissertation also discusses the phases of interest rate cycle and analyzes their reasons.The result shows:when doing single spectral analysis, the Federal Funds Rate has cycles of 45～60 years, about 20 years,8～11 years and 2～4 years. In the observation period of this paper, both interest rates shows cycles of 2 years,1.5 years,1 year and half a year. The lengths of the cycles are really similar. It may because of the same factors although their strengths are different. When doing cross spectral analysis, Federal Funds Rate and Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate advances each other at different times. Perhaps the two countries don't aim at interest rate, but bonds and regulation of monetary policies. At the end, the dissertation compares the interest rate systems between the two countries, and makes suggestions to continue to cultivate Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate as it wished to be.