Research On Liquidity Risk Management Of Commercial Banks In China

Liquidity has always been known as commercial banks'"lifeline", it is the foundation for all activities of commercial banks. As the main operation hub of China's modern financial industry and economic society, commercial banks has affected the development of our country's economic and financial industry in all respects, they have played an important role in the country's economic development. Since the financial system occurs, liquidity risk accompanies with the whole development process of the banking industry, it is commercial bank's main risk. Liquidity problems have affected commercial banks'management process in the most extensive way, affecting the survival of the bank, the development of the whole banking industry and the stability of the financial system. Commercial banks in our country have not paid enough attention of the liquidity risk, management for liquidity risk is primary and consciousness of risk management is weak.Originated from U.S.A, subprime mortgage crisis gradually spread globally in 2007, forming a global financial crisis. Since 2007, China's banking industry is open to all, getting into global competition. The necessity of banking industry's opening to the outside is the publicity, justice and fairness of financial market environment, market mechanism will surely replace the national credit. Financial crisis have made our country's commercial banks deeply aware of the significance of liquidity risk management. We should fully reflect the crisis, getting experience from it and strengthening the management of our country's commercial bank liquidity risk.This article narrates detailedly the current liquidity situation and liquidity risk management situation of our country's commercial banks from the international situation and the domestic present situation. The main research content includes following points:Firstly, the paper detailedly introduces the present research achivement of liquidity and liquidity risk management from home and abroad,fully states liquidity and liquidity risk management and other related concept,summarizes the liquidity risk management development course,sets forth the index of liquidity risk management from the static and dynamic aspect and introduces the latest regulation of liquidity supervision of the Basel committee.Secondly, the paper has made a detailed analysis of our country's commercial bank liquidity and liquidity risk management. This article collectes each monthly data of the past 10 years of our country's business banks, analyses various chart and index, detailedly describes the liquidity condition of China's commercial banks. On this basis,the article investigates China's commercial Banks' liquidity risk management condition from multiple perspectives, puts forward a series of questions of risk management, making risk management highly valued by bank risk management department.Thirdly, this paper uses ARMA model and ARCH model for prediction research. It selects liquidity gap as investigation index through data analysis of bank liquidity demand and supply in the past 10 years. It establishes the best liquidity gap prediction model by comparing and validating various forecasting models, and offers a strong technical support for the liquidity risk management of commercial banks.Finally, the paper gives some suggestion to the liquidity risk management of our country's commercial banks. From the macroscopic level,it puts forward that the government should promptly establish relevant laws and regulations,speed up the development of our country's financial market,and improve the financial environment in our country.From the micro level, it suggests that the commercial banks should build themselves, make the internal control system working better, strengthen early warning mechanism and improve asset structure.It offers feasible reference practice for commercial banks to strengthen liquidity risk management.