The Research Of Extreme Weather Climate And Disasters In Chongqing City Under Global Warming

Climate change, extreme events and disaster between the three is closely related to each other. Along with the further developing of global warming, In a lot of ways, causing some extreme weather climate events more frequent. This paper is Based on daily temperature data and daily precipitation data during the period1951-2010in ShaPingBa meteorological stations, apply the percentage of the international most popular method and define the extreme temperatures and extreme precipitation threshold, determine the extreme temperatures and precipitation index. Using the mathematical statistics and wavelet analysis, etc, Research reveals the law of extreme the weather events change in chongqing city during60years, the major conclusions are summarized as:1、Since1951, Chongqing city climate is warming trend, especially since the mid1990s, warming even more significant.1951-2010average temperature, the minimum annual average temperature and the average temperature of four seasons are all showed a rising trend, the maximum annual average temperature had no obvious changes; M-K mutations examination showed the average temperature, the maximum annual average and the maximum annual average temperature are produce mutations In the early21st century. Annual precipitation and the precipitation of spring、summer and winter are Increase trend, the precipitation of autumn is decreased. R/S analysis shows the average temperature and precipitation of year-round and four seasons in Chongqing city has the long-term sustainability, that is in the future may be in decline.2、Years extreme high temperature threshold and Years the number of extreme high temperature in Chongqing city are declined during the period1951-2010,but, Years extreme highest temperature is on the rise; Years extreme low temperature threshold and years extremes minimum temperature are on the rise, Years the number of extreme low temperature is declined. Wavelet analysis showed that each index of extreme temperature has widespread about3-10years and20years cycle. Average temperature with years extreme high temperature threshold and years the number of extreme high temperature has Positively related; Average temperature with years extreme low temperature threshold has Positively related, But with the number of extreme low temperature has negatively related. Throughout Four seasons of the year, only Summer average temperature with years the number of extreme high temperature has Positively related.3、Years the number of extreme precipitation in Chongqing city are declined during the period1951-2010,but years extreme precipitation, extreme precipitation intensity and extreme precipitation rate are on the rise. Wavelet analysis showed that each index of extreme precipitation events has widespread about5-10years and15-30years cycle. The annual precipitation with the different rainfall intensity related analysis shows that, The annual precipitation increase is mainly for the heavy rain and heavy rains caused by the increase, Further analysis of the extreme characteristics of annual precipitation that In recent years more extreme in the rain and extreme little rain years appear alternately frequency increased.In short, In the climate warming background, extreme climate change of Chongqing city significantly, Especially high temperature and heavy rain the strength of the extreme weather strength enhanced markedly, So the risk of severe weather disaster is on the increase, must improve the consciousness and the ability to deal with disaster prevention disaster.