Research On Regressive Model Of Fire And Meteorological Factors

With the development of our social and economy, situation of fire isincreasingly grim in our country. In recent years, China’s annual economic loss andthe casualties caused by fire bring the bad social and political influence to oursociety.The related researches mainly focus on fire such as safety science, combustion scienceto explore the law of fire. But fire is a complex system which not only have certain factorsbut also random factors, such as meteorological factors. It is a very important randomfactor.In this paper, to study the relationship between the meteorological factors andfire’s frequency, we take Tianjin’s meteorological data from1997to2007as sample.Different regression equations are established between meteorological factors suchas average temperature, average humidity, average wind speed, average monthlyrainfall and the frequency of fire, and the analysis comparisons of differentequations are carried on. Futhermore, the frequency and trend of fires are predictedin2008by the selected model. Conclusion shows that average temperature, averagehumidity, and average monthly rainfall have significant influence on the fireoccurred, but the average wind speed does not.