Study On Prediction And Warning Of The Bailongcun Landslide Belong Jiulong Village Of The Three Gorges Reservoir

Reservoir inducing landslide resurrection deformation is the common geologicaldisaster in the reservoir are.With formal water storage and running of the ThreeGorges Dam,gorge lakeside wading slope will be effected by the fluctuation of waterlevel which can easily make the ancient landslide resurrection and create newlandslides.Reservoir inducing landslide resurrection deformation is a complexgeological process with internal and external factors. A major cause of the banklandslide is the water level fluctuation after the normal operation of reservoir.With thevigorous development of hydropower and continuous construction of waterconservancy and hydropower project.To study the resurrection of deformation andfailure mode of the landslide under the action of water will be significant to theprediction and disaster prevention of such kind of reservoir landslide.The paper relies on the third geological disaster prevention research project,TheThird Geological Disaster Monitoring and Warning Project of the Three GorgesReservoir Area by Ministry of Land and Resources Department.The paper takesBailongcun Landslide as an example, making data collection, field investigation, fullunderstanding of the geological environment, sliding history, influend factors and thenanalysed the deformation monitoring of Landslide.Using numerical simulationsoftware to establish a numerical model of landslide.To study the changes of waterinfiltration line,the water level fluctuations and the changes in rainfall of Saturationline of slope of Landslide under the change of Reservoir water and then on this basisto analyse the change of stability of landslide.At the same time,by using physicalsimulation research and building a simple physical model for landslide,the paper made a further study about the failure mode of landslide under the condition ofReservoir water lifting and rainstorm.Through above researchs, there followed severalconclusions:1、Bailongcun Landslide is a loose accumulation type of landslide with dustpansurface morphology and deck-chair section shape. Landslide layer average thicknessof11.1m, the landslide area of57.6x104m~2, the total deformation of the slidingbody size of about639.4×10~4m~3, are two large-scale soil landslide. Beforeimpoundment in three Gorges reservoir area, signs of a slight deformation in landslide,after the water storage of the three gorges, displacement has increased.2、Through the analysis of landslide deformation monitoring, overall less volatiletime-displacement curve and tangent angleof about30°, only during the decline inrainfall and reservoir water,theyhave increased. Overall, the landslide in the constantspeed the peristaltic stage, influenced by the rainfall, have good stability.3、In the water level rises, landslide stability gradually increased, up to175mwater level stabilization phase, stability declined. In the drawdown phase, landslidesstability first decreased and then increased, the water level down to145m after thestabilization phase, the stability continue to rise. These changes are subject to theoutcome of the game landslide inside and outside the power of the impact of reservoirwater.4、In physics experiments, the reservoir water level falls, landslides leadingedge cracks. And rainfall conditions on the stability of the impact of intensification ofthe leading edge of the model slope cracks and through bank collapse start.5. Landslides through geological model-numerical model-physical model ofsuch ideas and methods of research. Points criterion for landslide prediction warning,including the displacement of the deformation rate, rainfall characteristics, waterlevel drawdown rate. At the same time make the landslide points level warningcriterion indicators.