Research On Evolutionary Game Using Bayesian Methods

As an important scientific theory, game theory has attracted wide attention in today’s economics even in the whole social science. Game theory which is oriented to the various practical problems’modeling and solution has undergone fast development and gained a series of achievement milestones over half a century. It has played an important role in the development of economics and relevant fields. Evolutionary game theory has been booming as an advanced tool for mathematical statistics since1990s.This thesis discusses the static game of incomplete information, solves the game issue by using bayesian method and evolutionary game theory. On the basis of reading and studying a large number of the relevant literature, the model according to the fact is built and the way to analyse is chosen. The main work includes the following aspects:(1) The concept of the static game with incomplete information is introduced and the theorem of Bayesian Nash equilibrium is proved which is specific to the issue of static game with incomplete information. And a classical game model of2manufacturers is considered and the theorem is utilized to solve the problem.(2) In order to solve the problem of cadre management, the evolutionary game theory is adopted. The payoff matrix between the chief leaders of the party and the government and other members of the organization departments is built, the evolutionary process of the strategies which are used by the chief leaders of the party and the government and other members of the organization departments. The evolutionary stable strategies are obtained through replicator dynamic equations. Finally, numerical simulation example is applied in the model, the results under different mechanisms are compared, some theoretical basis are provided for organization departments in cadre management scientific.(3) Aiming at solving the problem of the static game of incomplete information, the Bayesian methods and the evolutionary game theory are combined. The method solving this kind of problems is given. The payoff matrix between campaigners and the organization departments is built. The numerical example is applied in the model and the result is obtained at last.