| Since the birth of The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Changein1992, the international community’s efforts on reducing global greenhouse gasemissions have never stopped. In2011, Durban Climate Conference reached the filesthat developed countries’ further reduction commitment. The second phase of KyotoProtocol emission reduction commitment will become effective on January1,2013.International mitigation has made new results although there are difficulties. Thefuture of International carbon emissions market becomes more promising. The CDMmarket in our country will be in tortuous development gradually until perfect. CDMmarket has brought great benefits for our country; nevertheless, there is uncertainty inour CDM market. So, it’s necessary to analyze the uncertainty, and to explore the riskmanagement measures about CDM project.Based on the traditional risk and return theories and the risk evaluation methods,this paper analyzes the risks existing in CDM projects, and then classifies the risks.Then this paper adopts Monte Carlo Simulation methods to describe the risks fromquantitative aspect. The main work is as follows:Firstly this paper analyzes the risks CDM projects faces. CDM projects confrontdifferent risks in every stage of CDM projects implementation. In addition, CDMprojects face policy risk, weather risk, technology risk and economic fluctuation risk,etc. After analyzing the risks comprehensively, this paper classifies the risksappropriately, and then analyzes the factors that influence the pCER earnings.Secondly, choose Geometric Brownian Motion model and use the Monte CarloSimulation method to simulate the pCER price trends. Then calculate the VaR of pricein certain confident level. Lastly, based on the risk analysis above, combine with theoverseas’ CDM development and management experience, propose the risk controlmeasures to reduce a Variety of controllable risks that the project investors have toface, and then improve its investment income. |
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